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Revisions to Quarterly National Accounts data in Luxembourg

Numéro136
DateNovember
AuteurBob Krebs
Résumé

This study examines the revision histories of national accounts data in Luxembourg. I analyse first releases and revisions in the quarterly national accounts (QNA) published by the National Institute of Statistics (STATEC). Reliability is evaluated by measuring revision size, variability as well as the frequency in sign changes and acceleration/deceleration switches. In addition, the predictability of revisions is assessed by applying regression analysis. Overall, the results point to high uncertainty surrounding early QNA estimates, also in international comparison. I find that revisions to GDP and its components are substantial. While there is no clear evidence of a bias in year-on-year real GDP growth, this does not
hold for some GDP components.

Téléchargement Cahier d'étude 136 (pdf, 2 MByte)