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- Publications de la Banque centrale européenne
Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg
| Numéro | 13 |
| Date | Février 2005 |
| Auteur | Abdelaziz Rouabah |
| Résumé | The components of the current account balance of the Luxembourg balance of payments have been subject to substantial changes: a persistent deficit of the balance of trade in goods, a deterioration of the factor income balance, a worrying evolution of current transfers,… But what are the underlying reasons? Are they of a structural or transitory nature? Are they linked to a loss of competitiveness or are they rather the consequence of sluggish economic growth, thereby exacerbating the current account disequilibrium? We shall endeavour to address these questions by adopting two distinct methodologies. The first one consists in using “Mundell-Fleming”-type models of the balance of trade (in goods and services) in order to estimate critical elasticities (the Marshall-Lerner condition) or to identify the existence of a J-curve. The second approach consists in using intertemporal models of the current account where economies exchange the same good (or two tradable goods: imports and exports) in order to test the intertemporal smoothing behaviour of consumption, savings and investment.
Mots clés: compte de transactions courantes, compétitivité-prix, modèle intertemporel de la balance des transactions courantes. Classification du JEL: E 21, F32, F41, F47 |
| Téléchargement | Cahier d'étude 13 (pdf, 860 KByte) |
