Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?

House prices have grown regularly in Luxembourg since the 1970’s. Since 1997, the average annual growth rate is close to 10%. Since then, concerns about the origin of these developments have repeatedly merged. The aim of this paper is to provide an assessment of the housing market in Luxembourg. More precisely, we wonder whether house price increases are driven by fundamentals or whether a speculative bubble characterizes this market. We resort to a coïntégration analysis where we disentangle residential, non-residential and building plot markets. It is shown that fundamentals seem to have played a role in the growth of house prices. Particularly, construction costs, economic and demographic growth, and monetary policy through interest rates and credits contribute to the developments of house prices. Nevertheless, we should remain cautious regarding our conclusions since the implemented tests are subject to inherent technical pitfalls.

Codes JEL : G12, G21, R21