Règle de Taylor : Estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg

This paper explores the compatibility of Eurosystem monetary policy with Taylor-type rules. The Taylor rule aims at giving central bankers guidance in the setting of monetary policy against the background of macroeconomic instability. The initial specification of the Taylor rule determines a level of short-term interest rates considered compatible with the objective of price stability and the elimination of the output gap. The spread between the "Taylor rate" and observed interest rates is an indicator of the appropriateness of monetary policy with respect to macroeconomic fundamentals. The first part of the paper focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of the Taylor rule in its original form. Its application to monetary policy in the euro area since monetary union yields inconclusive results. Modifications to the weights and/or the inclusion of additional variables allow it to track observed interest rates more closely. The second part of the paper deals with differential effects of the single monetary policy. An application of selected Taylor-type rules for the euro area to Luxembourg tends to support the existence of differential effects.

Mots clés: Inflation, Les règles de politique monétaire, Ecart de production

Classification du JEL : E3, E52, E58